Tag Archives: Forecasting
A functional data analysis approach for forecasting age-specific population size: A case study for the United Kingdom
Han Lin Shang writes about forecasting age-specific population size based on an example of the UK. In recent decades, we have seen a considerable amount of development in the stochastic modelling and forecasting of population. Cohort component projection models are often used to model the evolution of age-specific population, and are particularly useful to highlight which […]
The Art and Science of Being Uncertain
This post from Dr. Jakub Bijak from the University of Southampton discusses the challenges surrounding the management and communication of demographic uncertainty, and the methods available for approaching these problems. Some of the most captivating questions in contemporary demography are about what we do not know: the realms of uncertainty. This is especially visible in population forecasts, which […]
Forecasting the outcome of the World Cup
The World Cup begins this week, in the face of controversy over corruption and venality in FIFA and continuing protests in the host nation Brazil against the incredible cost of the tournament and the harsh crackdowns on favela residents. Apart from the obvious moral and political debates, there are interesting demographic angles that could be taken […]
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